June 11, 2025: A Tale of Two Jobs Reports

May’s employment data presented two conflicting views of the labor market. The payroll survey—based on a sample of U.S. businesses—showed a gain of 139,000 jobs. In contrast, the household survey—drawn from a sample of U.S. households—reported a decline of 696,000 jobs, marking the largest monthly drop since December 2023. While the payroll survey is more widely followed due to its larger sample size and lower volatility, the household survey may be picking up signs of weakening conditions not yet reflected in headline figures.

The chart below highlights the growing divergence between the two measures. For much of the past few years, the surveys moved in relative alignment. That pattern has broken down over the last year, with monthly differences becoming both larger and less predictable. In May, the gap between the two surveys exceeded 835,000 jobs. While payroll gains have remained relatively steady, household results have become more erratic.

Markets focused on the payroll figures, largely ignoring the household report, and interpreted the business survey as a signal that labor market conditions remain stable. If the divergence between the two surveys continues, however, it could prompt fresh questions about the underlying strength of the labor market and the resilience of consumer spending.

Weekly Market Update: June 11, 2025