At Goelzer,

Beginning last week and gaining steam over the weekend, President Trump’s dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—and his threats to fire him—put investors on edge. The prospect of the

The U.S. bond market has not behaved “as it ought to” when stock investors become nervous, as seen following President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements. For the month, the S&P

For the past decade, the U.S. economy and stock markets have been the envy of the world. Aided by the growth of its technology sector, the U.S. economy grew at

President Trump’s first term began with market-friendly policies such as tax cuts and regulatory reform. Less market-friendly trade policies emerged later in his term. The market’s initial reaction to Trump’s

The first quarter of 2025 delivered a dramatic turnaround for international stocks. To be sure, this year’s outperformance of international stocks is to a large degree a simple reversal of

The conflict between hard and soft economic data is becoming increasingly relevant as we approach the end of the first quarter. Economic indicators have weakened, including a sizable drop in

What is our return relative to our Benchmark? Valid question, but not always the most important question on which to focus. Relative return measures a single aspect of success, whether

Bond market credit spreads remain unusually tight despite broader market volatility. While spreads have widened from their historically tight levels, they have not widened as much as expected, due to

No sentient being should be surprised of President Trump’s affinity for tariffs. In his first term, President Trump raised tariffs on imports from China, sparking retaliatory tariffs and a mild

What comes to mind when you think of infrastructure is probably roads, bridges, and power plants. While these certainly fall under that category, infrastructure is much more than that. It

As we have noted, when stocks are highly priced, they are increasingly vulnerable to even a hint of negative news. That proved true last week for the S&P 500® as

As a high-income earner, you have reached the position where your income exceeds your immediate needs. And most likely you have already taken the important steps of establishing an emergency

On first glance, last week’s January jobs report signaled continued momentum for the U.S. economy and the job market. While the number of new jobs created last month declined from

The Deepseek issue has stirred domestic equity markets over the past couple of weeks. A Chinese AI app demonstrated results comparable to—or in some cases, better than—large language models (LLMs)

Rising rates in 2022 and 2023 put pressure on private equity. Higher interest rates make financing private equity deals more expensive, which reduces deal activity. Less demand for deals puts

Last week’s economic reports reinforced that the U.S. economy ended last year on sound footing. Following last week’s report on December retail sales, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now Tracker increased

A recent chart of AI-identified mentions of tariffs in S&P 500 earnings calls underscores the increasing relevance of tariffs in shaping economic expectations. As President-elect Trump outlines his 2025 tariff

The past year was challenging for professional market forecasters. As the year began, caution was in the air—and for good reason. In 2023 the S&P 500® Index produced a total

In large-cap U.S. stock markets, 2024’s performance was much like 2023. The S&P 500® Index produced total returns in both years that were well above historical averages (26% in 2023

January 2, 2025   We are delighted to share that Cheryl Ackerman and Heather Tilton have joined our leadership team at Goelzer Investment Management.   Cheryl serves as our Director

Since the U.S. Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in March 2022, economic forecasters, Wall Street strategists, and Federal Reserve officials had anticipated the U.S. economy to slow—if not fall

December 17, 2024   We are proud to share our new Community Engagement Report, which highlights our efforts this year to Enrich the Lives of Our Clients, Colleagues, and Community.

Last week’s economic reports provided further evidence that the U.S. job market is slowing. Despite headline growth of 227,000 jobs in November, a higher unemployment rate and lengthening duration of

Goelzer Investment Management, Inc. Selected Again as a Best Place to Work in Money Management by Pensions & Investments   NEW YORK, NY (Dec. 9, 2024) – Goelzer Investment Management,

U.S. stocks have delivered strong returns over the past month, with the stocks in the Russell 3000 Index posting an average gain of 9.87%.1 Robust corporate earnings, supported by a

Leading up to the recent election, there was much uncertainty about the fate of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 and how to plan for the potential

Finally, the election is over. For many months over the past year, investors parsed inflation reports, employment reports, and even formerly exotic reports such as the Senior Loan Officer Opinion

Since the election, many have assumed higher tariffs will lead to higher inflation. However, a closer look reveals this may not be the case. During the 2018 trade war, PCE

After two light weeks of economic news, last week brought a surfeit of economic data releases and corporate earnings reports. Among the former, investors received two reports on the U.S.

As the stock market continues to notch new highs, underlying uncertainty may go unnoticed. While the stock market projects calm, increased volatility is clearly visible in the bond market. You

We are pleased to announce that Chris W. Cotterill will serve as our firm’s President effective January 2nd. Chris will succeed Brett D. McKamey, who has served as our President

For much of 2024, many homeowners held hopes to refinance their 7-8% mortgages into lower-interest loans as interest rates fell. Those hopes likely grew later in the summer as the

As we enter the fourth quarter we can make a prediction with reasonable confidence: short-term interest rates will move lower over the next 12-18 months. In fact, they have already

2024 is set to mark the fourth consecutive year of small-cap stock returns lagging large-cap stock returns. But optimism has surfaced on the horizon. Analyst forecasts point to parity in

Long awaited stimulative actions from the Chinese government captivated investor attention last week. Whether these actions deliver their intended jolt to China’s economy remains to be seen. Indisputable, however, was

Periods in which the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates have typically been positive for equities. Moreover, defensive stocks, such as those found in the consumer-staples sector, have tended to outperform

A frequent topic in the financial world has been the downward trend in the number of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock markets. Peaking back in the mid-1990s at

This week the Federal Reserve will almost certainly join other major central banks in easing monetary policy. It has been a long time coming. The Federal Funds target rate reached

For investors in U.S. stocks, last week’s 4.2% decline, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, was unpleasant but certainly not unique. In fact, declines of that size occur regularly

Last Friday in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear that the Federal Reserve will move its target interest rate lower next month. This move will come after

“History never repeats itself;man, always does.” – Voltaire   In the complex world of financial decision-making, our choices are influenced by psychological biases that can lead to less-than-optimal outcomes. Anchoring,

The market’s recent days of volatility might feel today like the distant past. Last week, the S&P posted its strongest weekly performance since last November, pushing the index higher and

We have seen a notable shift in stock-bond correlations this year as inflation declines. Historically, high inflation leads to positive correlations, meaning stocks and bonds move in the same direction,

This Monday’s trading day offered two historic market moves. The 12%, single-day drop in Japan’s Nikkei stock-market index was the largest decline in that index since 1987. Domestically, the so-called

A rotation out of the crowded AI trade has benefited beleaguered small cap and value stocks. A historically narrow market, led by a handful of large tech companies, left many

Last week’s economic releases delivered a mixed picture. On the one hand, a better-than-expected retail sales report signaled that consumer spending continues to expand—at a slower rate than last year,

Spirit United is the most prestigious recognition the United Way awards to its corporate partners.   July 22, 2024   INDIANAPOLIS – Goelzer Investment Management, one of Indiana’s largest registered

The flurry of earnings reports is about to begin, and the primary question for investors this season is how the gap between weakening macroeconomic data will reconcile with optimistic, bottom-up

We are frequently asked about the upcoming U.S. election and how the results of that election might affect the economy and markets. What follows is a concise summary of certain

The Fourth of July holiday may have shortened last week’s trading schedule, but the holiday could not keep investors from growing increasingly focused on the probability of interest rate cuts

Since the beginning of May, Nvidia’s stock has appreciated 42%. Such a two-month move in a stock is not in itself unusual. However, this level of stock appreciation is unusual

“You can only control your decisions, you cannot control the result.” While difficult to attribute to any one person, this sentiment is useful advice for institutional investors as they navigate

A few months ago, an unorthodox economic theory began to gather attention. Rather than constraining economic activity, could higher interest rates instead be stimulating it? The question seemed timely. Despite

When interpreting this week’s CPI report, it is important to note that inflation measures are not created equal.   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is based on a fixed basket

For much of the past 15 years, low bond yields have helped push up stock prices as investors found few alternatives to stocks in attempting to reach their return objectives.

With Memorial Day weekend and a quiet week of economic news ahead, the market is laser-focused on this week’s earnings report from NDIVIA, considered by many to be the bellwether

Depending on what stage you are at in the lifecycle of your business, business succession may have very different meanings. While revenue, expenses, profits, and opportunities for growth will always

Last week’s consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan reaffirmed that consumers are feeling increasingly negative about the economy. These negative sentiments persist despite jobs growing at an average

High interest rates, global conflict, problems in commercial real estate—despite these ongoing concerns, the U.S. corporate juggernaut carries forward. Through Monday, over 85% of companies in the S&P 500 Index

This week, investors will digest a litany of economic data, including updates on the U.S. job market and on manufacturing and service activity. These releases come amid a busy week

Last year, we published two quarterly Insights papers noting the narrow performance of the U.S. stock market, and for good reason. Over half of the S&P 500 Index’s 24.2% price

Morgan Housel in his book, Psychology of Money, discusses a phenomenon that is the obsession of many but achieved by few: creating significant wealth, as quickly as possible. He says

Goelzer Investment Management Selected as a Best Place to Work in Indiana Again in 2024   March 4, 2024   INDIANAPOLIS – Goelzer Investment Management, one of Indiana’s largest registered

Interest in accessing private market assets continues to grow among institutional and high net worth investors. Often referred to as alternatives, private market assets are simply the ability to invest

I want my son to inherit my $1.2 million house. Should I leave it to my second husband in my will? He promised to pass it on.   Director of

For all but a few prognosticators, 2023 was a humbling one. As we mentioned in last quarter’s Insights, most economists entered 2023 predicting a recession. And stock market forecasters were

We are pleased to announce that Gavin W. Stephens, CFA will serve as the firm’s Chief Investment Officer effective January 1st. As CIO, Gavin will lead our Investment Management team,

  As part of our engagement with endowments, foundations, non-profits, and other institutions, we hosted Marianne Glick and Yvonne Shaheen for a moderated conversation in November to focus on their

December 13, 2023   We are proud to share our new Community Engagement Report, which highlights our efforts this year to Enrich the Lives of Our Clients, Colleagues, and Community.

Goelzer Investment Management, Inc. Selected as a Best Place to Work in Money Management in Nationwide Review by Pensions & Investments   NEW YORK, NY (Dec. 12, 2023) – Goelzer

Warren Buffet once remarked, “Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.” Planting and nurturing a tree to the point that it

In the mid-2000s, author Daniel H. Wilson published “Where’s My Jetpack?,” a book for frustrated futurists in search of techno wonders promised long ago. Somewhat like Wilson, investors have spent

Among the many decisions facing an investment committee, few are as critical as setting an appropriate spending policy. Comprising a set of rules to govern how a nonprofit will distribute

All Good Things May Come to an End   The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) received a great deal of attention for providing significant income tax savings

Dear Tax Guy: I inherited a lake house, but want to give my share to my sister. How can we do this — and avoid paying taxes?   Director of

During the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 Index returned 16.8% with nearly three-fourths of that performance coming from just ten companies.1 The dominating theme driving these lopsided returns

Much has been written about the U.S. stock market’s narrow performance this year—and for good reason. At its most extreme, five months into the year, all of the S&P 500

“Is our money safe at the bank?” Until recently, that question probably has not kept you up at night. However, unprecedented times tend to shuffle priorities, and, with the recent

The past few years have presented a chaotic landscape of new rules and regulations related to federal income taxes. The recent passing of SECURE Act 2.0 in late 2022 created

I am often asked, “When will things return to normal?” Despite their daily routines returning to normal, investors continue to feel the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic in the economy

Overall, people are giving more to nonprofits. Over the last 40 years, the average yearly increase in charitable giving in the U.S. has been $10.7 billion and reached an all-time

In recent days, state banking authorities and the FDIC have closed three banks: Silvergate, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Both Silvergate and Signature Bank held a niche in

A vital part of comprehensive wealth planning is the estate plan. If you have invested the effort to define your goals, manage your cash flow, and save and invest toward

Goelzer Investment Management Selected as a Best Place to Work in Indiana Again in 2023   February 27, 2023   INDIANAPOLIS – Goelzer Investment Management, one of Indiana’s largest registered

Investors have been through a volatile multi-year stretch. The combination of a worldwide pandemic and erratic monetary policy led to 20% or greater declines for U.S. stock prices in three

Dear Tax Guy: I bought a portable oxygen concentrator for a friend with terminal cancer. Could it be a charitable donation?   Senior Wealth Advisor Michelle Jann reviews some of

Are you interested in moving your finances in a different direction in 2023? If so, it is time to plan your trip. And like all trips, your financial journey will

Opinion: RMD calculation for charitable contributions: Here’s the most tax-efficient way to give   Senior Wealth Advisor Michelle Jann reviews the benefits of qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) for MarketWatch readers.

  On November 29th, more than a hundred non-profit leaders, board members, and friends joined us for a special, moderated conversation with Moira Carlstedt, John Elliott, and Ann Murtlow that

The Best Way to Construct a Portfolio in Today’s Market   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens, CFA, joined “Morning Trade Live” host Oliver Renick to talk about fixed income,

December 12, 2022   Our core purpose is to Enrich the Lives of our Clients, Colleagues, and Community, and our 2022 Community Engagement Report highlights our many efforts this past

As Thanksgiving approaches, our thoughts often shift to loved ones and our communities. The season of giving also begins with Giving Tuesday taking place the week after Thanksgiving. Many people

As this difficult year for investors moves ahead, a peculiar logic is taking hold over the markets: what is good is bad, and what is bad is good. In other

Munis follow UST rally post-weak GDP; fund inflows return   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens, CFA, tells The Bond Buyer that most of the damage to bonds is finished

Here’s the threat to markets if investors ignore ‘nontrivial’ stagflation risk   In a current state of stagflation, Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens provided commentary to MarketWatch about how

In our April 2021 edition of Insights, I wrote that inflation would become the new worry for investors. With the consumer price index above 8% the past three months, that

In times of stress, our natural reaction is to either run for the hills, fleeing from what threatens us or to freeze and do nothing, choosing to endure and hoping

Stocks Wobble as Powell Testifies Before Congress   Director of Porfolio Management Gavin Stephens spoke to The Wall Street Journal about recent market moves and recession indicators.   To read

A discussion on markets and Goelzer’s expansion into St. Louis   Don Hutchinson and Brett Stehl discuss the economy and inflation, market strategies and Goelzer’s expansion into St. Louis with

Investment Advisor Adds Institutional Consultant   FIN-News, which provides insights on the institutional asset management space, reported on our hiring of Brett Stehl as an institutional consultant as we grow

Stocks could fall a lot further   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens is quoted on whether the Fed will stay the course and hike rates, despite the stock market

Will declining stock prices cause the Federal Reserve to alter its course?     May 2022   During the last hiking cycle—a slow, deliberate cycle that began in December 2015—investors

Munis steady in their own lane amid UST volatility   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens speaks about time-sensitive opportunities in municipal bonds.   To read this article, please click

April 2022   Prior to each of the past six U.S. economic recessions, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes has risen above the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds—a

Analysis: Some investors tiptoe back into Treasuries, as hawkish Fed clouds outlook   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens discusses Goelzer’s bond strategy amid a hawkish Fed.   To read

Munis hit on long end, play catch-up to Treasuries   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens’ commentary on the chances of a near-term recession is quoted.   To read this

April 2022   The new year has delivered a sharp jump in volatility across stock, bond, and commodities markets. Chart 1, for example, shows that daily price volatility for the

March 2022   Inflation is at the top of most minds—and with good reason. The most recent information released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics cites that the Consumer Price

March 2022   Following Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, we have fielded many questions about potential spillover effects of the war on the global economy and on financial markets.

Stock-market investors should watch this part of the yield curve for the ‘best leading indicator of trouble ahead’   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens speaks to Joy Wiltermuth about

Munis hit hard on short end, damage felt along curve   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens’ commentary on the 3m/10y yield curve is quoted.   To read this article,

The ‘Yield Curve’ Is Close to Inverting. A Different Curve Tells a More Upbeat Story   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens is quoted on why investors may be watching

Goelzer Investment Management Selected as a “2022 Best Places to Work in Indiana” Company   February 22, 2022   INDIANAPOLIS – Goelzer Investment Management, one of Indiana’s largest registered investment

Goelzer Investment Management Named a 2022 Best Place to Work for Financial Advisers in Nationwide Program   February 7, 2022   INDIANAPOLIS – Goelzer Investment Management, one of Indiana’s largest

January 2022 “Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming.” —DAVID BOWIE   We have made it our practice to begin each year with an update of our 10-year

December 15, 2021   At Goelzer Investment Management, we are committed to enriching the lives of our clients, our colleagues, and those in our community.   We believe that we

November 2021   Growing interest surrounding ESG investing, which stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance, requires institutional investors to be aware of the challenges and considerations in successfully implementing ESG

October 2021 “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want

Critical Actions for Success   Most business owners agree that having a formal transition strategy is important, yet 80% of owners don’t have one. It’s easy to delay the process,

July 2021 Investing involves risks. One type of risk we all try to avoid is the permanent loss of money. But a more common risk faced by investors is temporary

July 6, 2021   Goelzer Investment Management is proud to announce the full return of our team to our headquarters on the Circle in Downtown Indianapolis and the full reopening

Goelzer Investment Management’s Institutional Advisory Team provides a unique look into capital market conditions with an eye towards the re-opening of the economy, intermediate implications of a shift in fiscal

April 2021 Investing is a never-ending struggle between worry and optimism. The past 14 months illustrated that better than any period in recent memory. Beginning with panicked selling set off

Goelzer Investment Management Selected as a “2021 Best Places to Work in Indiana” Company   February 2021 Goelzer Investment Management, one of Indiana’s largest registered investment advisory firms, is very

“After changes upon changes we are more or less the same.” PAUL SIMON, “THE BOXER”   January 2021 For all the economic turmoil and suffering the pandemic caused in 2020,

October 2020 While still below January’s pre-pandemic level, the U.S. economy has made great progress since the lifting of lockdowns and restrictions. Yet today’s economy is far from normal and,

October 2020 The CARES Act was passed in the spring in an effort to help Americans through the pandemic and ensuing economic turmoil. It also may provide a few additional

August 2020 In Indiana, our county sheriffs protect our communities and enforce our laws, and we are deeply grateful for the safety and security that sheriffs and their deputies provide.

July 2020 We’ll start with good news: the recession that began in February has already ended. That is not to say that the economy is back to where it was

June 2020 As equities experienced two bear markets and interest rates declined in the 2000s, interest in alternatives became more pronounced. This was coupled with innovation in financial instruments, including

June 2020 The importance of a strong Investment Policy Statement in times of crisis: What can (and should) you be doing? What happens when you make short-term decisions with long-term capital? Think long-term

June 2020 Over the past six months, Congress has passed two new laws that affect retirement, charitable giving, and estate planning. The new laws known as the SECURE (Setting Every

May 2020 Goelzer Investment Management reopened our offices in downtown Indianapolis this week in accordance with our new Return to the Office Plan, which is designed to protect the health

April 2020   Mitigation efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19 are affecting the daily lives of people around the world. Some 2.6 billion people are now living under government

March 2020   Given recent events, extreme volatility, and understandable concern, we want you to know we are very much present and assessing new information as it becomes available. We

January 2020   “At Goelzer, intellectual capital has always been one of our strengths, and with Chris Cotterill aboard, we’re enhancing our management capabilities so that our clients continue to

January 2020   The stock market reminded us again this past year that a perfect economy is not required to push stock prices higher. Rather, prices climb on signs of

Most institutions rely on their investment portfolios to fund their budgets. From tuition assistance to basic operational assistance, these institutions have drawn on their investment funds to fulfill their missions.

August 2019   What is one to make of the markets over the past six months? First the stock market fell 20% and bond yields declined, both correctly predicting a

August 2018   The first three quarters of 2019 have produced unexpectedly strong results for bond investors. Slowing global economic growth, declining inflation expectations, and accommodative central bank policies have

August 2018 Investors have shown increasing acceptance of passive investment strategies. Meanwhile, funds that employ active strategies—that is, those with managers who strive to outperform their benchmarks—have lost market share

We all face risks as investors. Stock market volatility, interest rate changes, and permanent loss of capital are just a few of the many risks we confront in pursuit of

April 2018   How much can I spend each year without depleting my portfolio? It’s a question we hear often from clients. While the question is simple, calculating the answer

January 2018   It’s not just people who like to take time off now and then. Apparently, volatility also enjoys some time off—at least that’s what this past year’s stock

October 2017   Before starting this quarter’s discussion, I first want to extend from all of us at Goelzer our heartfelt sympathies to those who have suffered due to the

April 2017   “Higher interest rates may be coming.” That was the forecast we shared on these pages one year ago. Our forecast was based on expectations for higher inflation

January 2017   The U.S. stock market was both a volatile and rewarding place to invest in 2016. Thanks to a sharp year-end rally set off by the U.S. elections,

October 2016 Central bankers across the developed world continue to rely on low or even negative interest rates to spur economic growth. The resulting low returns on bank accounts and

July 2016   The chart below shows both the monthly prices and forward 12-months earnings for the S&P 500 Index since January 2000. What the chart makes clear is the

April 2016   Markets have a way of wearing people down. By moving in one direction or staying within a range over an extended period, markets convince people that the

January 2016   Since the start of the industrial revolution, people have worked to become proficient at mining, manufacturing, financing, and selling all types of goods. It became evident this

November 2015   Many investors are concerned with how to secure a reliable and growing stream of income. At Goelzer Investment Management, we believe the key to meeting your income

October 2015 Volatility is back. The stock market’s mostly smooth climb higher since 2012 was interrupted this past quarter with stock prices, at the worst point, declining by 10% over