Website Logo
Website Logo
Top Decoration

Insights
on investments, markets and our community

Perspectives from
Goelzer's team of experts

Bottom Decoration

June 12, 2024: Understanding Inflation Measures

When interpreting this week’s CPI report, it is important to note that inflation measures are not created equal.   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is based on a fixed basket […]

Read more...

June 5, 2024: The Fed Model: A Questionable Timing Tool

For much of the past 15 years, low bond yields have helped push up stock prices as investors found few alternatives to stocks in attempting to reach their return objectives. […]

Read more...

May 22, 2024: Opportunities in Artificial Intelligence

With Memorial Day weekend and a quiet week of economic news ahead, the market is laser-focused on this week’s earnings report from NDIVIA, considered by many to be the bellwether […]

Read more...

May 15, 2024: Why Are Consumers Pessimistic?

Last week’s consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan reaffirmed that consumers are feeling increasingly negative about the economy. These negative sentiments persist despite jobs growing at an average […]

Read more...

May 8, 2024: A Strong Start to the Year in Corporate Earnings

High interest rates, global conflict, problems in commercial real estate—despite these ongoing concerns, the U.S. corporate juggernaut carries forward. Through Monday, over 85% of companies in the S&P 500 Index […]

Read more...

May 1, 2024: Why Budget Deficits Matter

This week, investors will digest a litany of economic data, including updates on the U.S. job market and on manufacturing and service activity. These releases come amid a busy week […]

Read more...

Narrow Stock Market, Again

Last year, we published two quarterly Insights papers noting the narrow performance of the U.S. stock market, and for good reason. Over half of the S&P 500 Index’s 24.2% price […]

Read more...

MarketWatch, January 19, 2024

I want my son to inherit my $1.2 million house. Should I leave it to my second husband in my will? He promised to pass it on.   Director of […]

Read more...

Our Annual Look into the Future

For all but a few prognosticators, 2023 was a humbling one. As we mentioned in last quarter’s Insights, most economists entered 2023 predicting a recession. And stock market forecasters were […]

Read more...

Where’s My Recession?

In the mid-2000s, author Daniel H. Wilson published “Where’s My Jetpack?,” a book for frustrated futurists in search of techno wonders promised long ago. Somewhat like Wilson, investors have spent […]

Read more...

MarketWatch, August 14, 2023

Dear Tax Guy: I inherited a lake house, but want to give my share to my sister. How can we do this — and avoid paying taxes?   Director of […]

Read more...

Artificial Intelligence: Analysis from an Investment Perspective

During the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 Index returned 16.8% with nearly three-fourths of that performance coming from just ten companies.1 The dominating theme driving these lopsided returns […]

Read more...

The Narrow Stock Market: And the Trends That Got Us Here

Much has been written about the U.S. stock market’s narrow performance this year—and for good reason. At its most extreme, five months into the year, all of the S&P 500 […]

Read more...

The Path to Normal

I am often asked, “When will things return to normal?” Despite their daily routines returning to normal, investors continue to feel the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic in the economy […]

Read more...

Thoughts on the Fallout from Silicon Valley Bank

In recent days, state banking authorities and the FDIC have closed three banks: Silvergate, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Both Silvergate and Signature Bank held a niche in […]

Read more...

Improved Expectations

Investors have been through a volatile multi-year stretch. The combination of a worldwide pandemic and erratic monetary policy led to 20% or greater declines for U.S. stock prices in three […]

Read more...

MarketWatch, December 27, 2022

Dear Tax Guy: I bought a portable oxygen concentrator for a friend with terminal cancer. Could it be a charitable donation?   Senior Wealth Advisor Michelle Jann reviews some of […]

Read more...

MarketWatch, December 21, 2022

Opinion: RMD calculation for charitable contributions: Here’s the most tax-efficient way to give   Senior Wealth Advisor Michelle Jann reviews the benefits of qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) for MarketWatch readers. […]

Read more...

TD Ameritrade Network, December 16, 2022

The Best Way to Construct a Portfolio in Today’s Market   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens, CFA, joined “Morning Trade Live” host Oliver Renick to talk about fixed income, […]

Read more...

When Good News Is Bad News

As this difficult year for investors moves ahead, a peculiar logic is taking hold over the markets: what is good is bad, and what is bad is good. In other […]

Read more...

The Bond Buyer, July 28, 2022

Munis follow UST rally post-weak GDP; fund inflows return   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens, CFA, tells The Bond Buyer that most of the damage to bonds is finished […]

Read more...

MarketWatch, July 26, 2022

Here’s the threat to markets if investors ignore ‘nontrivial’ stagflation risk   In a current state of stagflation, Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens provided commentary to MarketWatch about how […]

Read more...

The Rising Value of Money

In our April 2021 edition of Insights, I wrote that inflation would become the new worry for investors. With the consumer price index above 8% the past three months, that […]

Read more...

The Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2022

Stocks Wobble as Powell Testifies Before Congress   Director of Porfolio Management Gavin Stephens spoke to The Wall Street Journal about recent market moves and recession indicators.   To read […]

Read more...

Life’s Third Act Podcast, June 21, 2022

A discussion on markets and Goelzer’s expansion into St. Louis   Don Hutchinson and Brett Stehl discuss the economy and inflation, market strategies and Goelzer’s expansion into St. Louis with […]

Read more...

FIN-News, June 9, 2022

Investment Advisor Adds Institutional Consultant   FIN-News, which provides insights on the institutional asset management space, reported on our hiring of Brett Stehl as an institutional consultant as we grow […]

Read more...

CNN Business, May 16, 2022

Stocks could fall a lot further   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens is quoted on whether the Fed will stay the course and hike rates, despite the stock market […]

Read more...

Is a Fed Put in Play?

Will declining stock prices cause the Federal Reserve to alter its course?     May 2022   During the last hiking cycle—a slow, deliberate cycle that began in December 2015—investors […]

Read more...

The Bond Buyer, April 27, 2022

Munis steady in their own lane amid UST volatility   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens speaks about time-sensitive opportunities in municipal bonds.   To read this article, please click […]

Read more...

On the Probability of Recession

April 2022   Prior to each of the past six U.S. economic recessions, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes has risen above the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds—a […]

Read more...

Reuters, April 22, 2022

Analysis: Some investors tiptoe back into Treasuries, as hawkish Fed clouds outlook   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens discusses Goelzer’s bond strategy amid a hawkish Fed.   To read […]

Read more...

The Bond Buyer, April 18, 2022

Munis hit on long end, play catch-up to Treasuries   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens’ commentary on the chances of a near-term recession is quoted.   To read this […]

Read more...

Sorting Through the Headwinds

April 2022   The new year has delivered a sharp jump in volatility across stock, bond, and commodities markets. Chart 1, for example, shows that daily price volatility for the […]

Read more...

War in Ukraine: Implications for the Economy and Markets

March 2022   Following Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, we have fielded many questions about potential spillover effects of the war on the global economy and on financial markets. […]

Read more...

MarketWatch, March 25, 2022

Stock-market investors should watch this part of the yield curve for the ‘best leading indicator of trouble ahead’   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens speaks to Joy Wiltermuth about […]

Read more...

The Bond Buyer, March 24, 2022

Munis hit hard on short end, damage felt along curve   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens’ commentary on the 3m/10y yield curve is quoted.   To read this article, […]

Read more...

Barron’s, March 23, 2022

The ‘Yield Curve’ Is Close to Inverting. A Different Curve Tells a More Upbeat Story   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens is quoted on why investors may be watching […]

Read more...

Our Annual Look to the Future

January 2022 “Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming.” —DAVID BOWIE   We have made it our practice to begin each year with an update of our 10-year […]

Read more...

ESG Investing: What, Why, and Considerations for Successful Implementation

November 2021   Growing interest surrounding ESG investing, which stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance, requires institutional investors to be aware of the challenges and considerations in successfully implementing ESG […]

Read more...

Where Have the Vigilantes Gone?

October 2021 “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want […]

Read more...

When Volatility Matters

July 2021 Investing involves risks. One type of risk we all try to avoid is the permanent loss of money. But a more common risk faced by investors is temporary […]

Read more...

Inflation: The New Worry

April 2021 Investing is a never-ending struggle between worry and optimism. The past 14 months illustrated that better than any period in recent memory. Beginning with panicked selling set off […]

Read more...

Abnormal Economy, Abnormal Markets

October 2020 While still below January’s pre-pandemic level, the U.S. economy has made great progress since the lifting of lockdowns and restrictions. Yet today’s economy is far from normal and, […]

Read more...

The Recovery Begins

July 2020 We’ll start with good news: the recession that began in February has already ended. That is not to say that the economy is back to where it was […]

Read more...

Insights