Chief Investment Officer | Principal
December 3, 2025: Santa Claus Is Coming to Town?
Early this year, we noted that two years of extraordinary stock-market performance (2023 and 2024) should not doom the third to weak or negative returns. History suggests otherwise: the year following two consecutive 20%+ gains has more often delivered positive returns than negative ones. That pattern—barring an unexpected shock in the weeks ahead—appears intact again this year.
Seasonality also favors investors. Over the past 50 years, November has been the strongest month for stocks, averaging a 2.4% gain. December ranks fourth, with an average return of 1.6%. This November, however, fell short of its reputation. The S&P 500 eked out a meager 0.25% gain, placing this November 37th among the past 50.
Fortunately, history offers a silver lining: weak Novembers have generally augured for strong Decembers. If that trend holds, investors may find another gift under the tree: a third consecutive year of robust stock returns.
Weekly Market Update: December 3, 2025
