American Exceptionalism Amid a Gloom Bloom
For the past decade, the U.S. economy and stock markets have been the envy of the world. Aided by the growth of its technology sector, the U.S. economy grew at
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Our Annual Look Into the Future
The past year was challenging for professional market forecasters. As the year began, caution was in the air—and for good reason. In 2023 the S&P 500® Index produced a total
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The Election Is Finally Over. Now What?
Finally, the election is over. For many months over the past year, investors parsed inflation reports, employment reports, and even formerly exotic reports such as the Senior Loan Officer Opinion
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Rates Are Coming Down. Now What?
As we enter the fourth quarter we can make a prediction with reasonable confidence: short-term interest rates will move lower over the next 12-18 months. In fact, they have already
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Where Have All the Public Companies Gone?
A frequent topic in the financial world has been the downward trend in the number of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock markets. Peaking back in the mid-1990s at
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Investment Implications of This Year’s Election
We are frequently asked about the upcoming U.S. election and how the results of that election might affect the economy and markets. What follows is a concise summary of certain
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Narrow Stock Market, Again
Last year, we published two quarterly Insights papers noting the narrow performance of the U.S. stock market, and for good reason. Over half of the S&P 500 Index’s 24.2% price
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Our Annual Look into the Future
For all but a few prognosticators, 2023 was a humbling one. As we mentioned in last quarter’s Insights, most economists entered 2023 predicting a recession. And stock market forecasters were
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Where’s My Recession?
In the mid-2000s, author Daniel H. Wilson published “Where’s My Jetpack?,” a book for frustrated futurists in search of techno wonders promised long ago. Somewhat like Wilson, investors have spent
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Artificial Intelligence: Analysis from an Investment Perspective
During the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 Index returned 16.8% with nearly three-fourths of that performance coming from just ten companies.1 The dominating theme driving these lopsided returns
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The Narrow Stock Market: And the Trends That Got Us Here
Much has been written about the U.S. stock market’s narrow performance this year—and for good reason. At its most extreme, five months into the year, all of the S&P 500
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The Path to Normal
I am often asked, “When will things return to normal?” Despite their daily routines returning to normal, investors continue to feel the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic in the economy
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Thoughts on the Fallout from Silicon Valley Bank
In recent days, state banking authorities and the FDIC have closed three banks: Silvergate, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Both Silvergate and Signature Bank held a niche in
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Improved Expectations
Investors have been through a volatile multi-year stretch. The combination of a worldwide pandemic and erratic monetary policy led to 20% or greater declines for U.S. stock prices in three
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When Good News Is Bad News
As this difficult year for investors moves ahead, a peculiar logic is taking hold over the markets: what is good is bad, and what is bad is good. In other
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The Rising Value of Money
In our April 2021 edition of Insights, I wrote that inflation would become the new worry for investors. With the consumer price index above 8% the past three months, that
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Is a Fed Put in Play?
Will declining stock prices cause the Federal Reserve to alter its course? May 2022 During the last hiking cycle—a slow, deliberate cycle that began in December 2015—investors
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On the Probability of Recession
April 2022 Prior to each of the past six U.S. economic recessions, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes has risen above the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds—a
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Sorting Through the Headwinds
April 2022 The new year has delivered a sharp jump in volatility across stock, bond, and commodities markets. Chart 1, for example, shows that daily price volatility for the
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War in Ukraine: Implications for the Economy and Markets
March 2022 Following Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, we have fielded many questions about potential spillover effects of the war on the global economy and on financial markets.
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Our Annual Look to the Future
January 2022 “Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming.” —DAVID BOWIE We have made it our practice to begin each year with an update of our 10-year
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ESG Investing: What, Why, and Considerations for Successful Implementation
November 2021 Growing interest surrounding ESG investing, which stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance, requires institutional investors to be aware of the challenges and considerations in successfully implementing ESG
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Where Have the Vigilantes Gone?
October 2021 “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want
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When Volatility Matters
July 2021 Investing involves risks. One type of risk we all try to avoid is the permanent loss of money. But a more common risk faced by investors is temporary
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Inflation: The New Worry
April 2021 Investing is a never-ending struggle between worry and optimism. The past 14 months illustrated that better than any period in recent memory. Beginning with panicked selling set off
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Abnormal Economy, Abnormal Markets
October 2020 While still below January’s pre-pandemic level, the U.S. economy has made great progress since the lifting of lockdowns and restrictions. Yet today’s economy is far from normal and,
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The Recovery Begins
July 2020 We’ll start with good news: the recession that began in February has already ended. That is not to say that the economy is back to where it was
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