Improved Expectations
Investors have been through a volatile multi-year stretch. The combination of a worldwide pandemic and erratic monetary policy led to 20% or greater declines for U.S. stock prices in three […]
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When Good News Is Bad News
As this difficult year for investors moves ahead, a peculiar logic is taking hold over the markets: what is good is bad, and what is bad is good. In other […]
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The Rising Value of Money
In our April 2021 edition of Insights, I wrote that inflation would become the new worry for investors. With the consumer price index above 8% the past three months, that […]
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Is a Fed Put in Play?
Will declining stock prices cause the Federal Reserve to alter its course? May 2022 During the last hiking cycle—a slow, deliberate cycle that began in December 2015—investors […]
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On the Probability of Recession
April 2022 Prior to each of the past six U.S. economic recessions, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes has risen above the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds—a […]
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Sorting Through the Headwinds
April 2022 The new year has delivered a sharp jump in volatility across stock, bond, and commodities markets. Chart 1, for example, shows that daily price volatility for the […]
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War in Ukraine: Implications for the Economy and Markets
March 2022 Following Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, we have fielded many questions about potential spillover effects of the war on the global economy and on financial markets. […]
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Our Annual Look to the Future
January 2022 “Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming.” —DAVID BOWIE We have made it our practice to begin each year with an update of our 10-year […]
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Where Have the Vigilantes Gone?
October 2021 “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want […]
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When Volatility Matters
July 2021 Investing involves risks. One type of risk we all try to avoid is the permanent loss of money. But a more common risk faced by investors is temporary […]
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Inflation: The New Worry
April 2021 Investing is a never-ending struggle between worry and optimism. The past 14 months illustrated that better than any period in recent memory. Beginning with panicked selling set off […]
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Abnormal Economy, Abnormal Markets
October 2020 While still below January’s pre-pandemic level, the U.S. economy has made great progress since the lifting of lockdowns and restrictions. Yet today’s economy is far from normal and, […]
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The Recovery Begins
July 2020 We’ll start with good news: the recession that began in February has already ended. That is not to say that the economy is back to where it was […]
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